Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 2.544334 2.958350 3.416625 3.961284 4.590799 5.295397 6.143817
2026-01-25 1.855693 2.398861 3.064095 3.937806 5.054422 6.433177 8.264906
2026-02-01 1.354597 1.911148 2.651955 3.708105 5.173497 7.133541 9.954051
2026-02-08 1.055109 1.602930 2.385199 3.580231 5.356728 7.897273 11.805182
2026-02-15 0.869291 1.408449 2.226784 3.554052 5.648322 8.821029 13.989433
2026-02-22 0.765283 1.312809 2.189985 3.690032 6.184685 10.160548 16.971966
2026-03-01 0.652200 1.179111 2.066159 3.658470 6.436915 11.074689 19.393152
2026-03-08 0.556812 1.056915 1.938417 3.593413 6.612293 11.870873 21.709779
2026-03-15 0.488946 0.971179 1.858288 3.594725 6.895204 12.875640 24.510660
2026-03-22 0.467724 0.968590 1.926829 3.875577 7.721735 14.946689 29.512787
2026-03-29 0.425196 0.916726 1.893369 3.954086 8.171300 16.372380 33.481599
2026-04-05 0.386761 0.866594 1.855060 4.015291 8.591302 17.787857 37.607065
2026-04-12 0.346129 0.807235 1.793426 4.028671 8.935794 19.139222 41.878516
2026-04-19 0.307273 0.745604 1.718517 4.004516 9.203082 20.381033 46.128273
2026-04-26 0.258527 0.652635 1.560330 3.770904 8.977115 20.550113 48.094060
2026-05-03 0.224093 0.587581 1.454916 3.640876 8.964253 21.179162 51.171732
2026-05-10 0.200701 0.545669 1.397094 3.614252 9.188312 22.370047 55.709515
2026-05-17 0.189116 0.532062 1.405881 3.752485 9.831328 24.619797 63.077168
2026-05-24 0.170223 0.495536 1.351154 3.720397 10.043423 25.864819 68.158882
2026-05-31 0.152097 0.457837 1.287356 3.654261 10.157565 26.882975 72.812444
2026-06-07 0.138907 0.431832 1.250708 3.655594 10.450492 28.392057 78.947511
2026-06-14 0.137727 0.441058 1.312661 3.941104 11.560515 32.170530 91.632154
2026-06-21 0.129034 0.425903 1.303160 4.020914 12.107180 34.522393 100.759243